Matthew Trần:
Mấy nhà banks cũa Nga zự
trù sẽ mất MỘT
KỸ đồng
rubles vào năm 2015 !!!
- hay là sẽ mất 1,000 TỸ
đồng rubles)
- hay là sẽ mất 1,000,000 TRIỆU
đồng
rubles
(Tui
zự định thuê một toa xe lữa đễ qua Nga mua đồng ruble về zùng như toilet papers
cho mười mấy đời kon cháu kũa tôi sau ni xài ...)
Russian banks are set
to lose 1 trillion rubles in 2015
By Tomas Hirst 14
hours ago
.
REUTERS/Maxim
Zmeyev President Vladimir Putin.
The Russian central
bank's rate drop last week will not be enough to prevent the country's banking
system from posting heavy losses this year, which could run to as much as 1
trillion rubles ($14.5 billion; £9.6 billion).
Research from the
ratings agency Moody's indicates that Russian banks are struggling to contain
cost increases following the surprise 650 basis point interest rate hike by the
central bank last month, to 17%. Although the Bank of Russia reduced rates to
15% last week in an effort to ease pressure on the banking system, these
measures are unlikely to be enough to reverse the trend.
Moody's writes:
" We estimate that
the sector’s aggregate net loss will be around RUB1 trillion in 2015,
compared with net profits of RUB600 billion in 2014 and net profits of RUB1
trillion in 2013."
.
Pushing interest rates
up to 17% was designed to halt the collapsing value of the ruble, but in
increasing the cost of borrowing money and servicing debt it also posed a risk
to domestic spending. Though it was of limited success in achieving the former (as
the crude oil price continued its slide pulling the ruble with it), the
negative consequences were borne by Russia's banking system. The government was
forced to inject $2.4 billion into various financial institutions, including
state-owned lenders VTB and Gazprombank.
Interfax is now
reporting that the ongoing troubles of the banks could well be behind the CBR's
reported decision to lower rates. The Russian
news service quoted a letter from Anatoly Aksakov, the president of
the Association of Regional Banks of Russia, to Russian central bank governor
Elvira Nabiullina.
It said:
The situation in the
Russian banking market is a serious concern. Despite some stabilisation in the
foreign exchange market and the expected inflow of tax and budgetary resources,
banks are experiencing acute shortage of liquidity. According to bankers,
skyrocketing interest rates caused an increase in the key rate, already
launched the process of losing the solvency of companies. Bankers believe that
the preservation of the current situation will cause a wave of bankruptcies not
only credit institutions but also a number of enterprises and companies.
Unfortunately, it looks
like it comes too late to prevent the higher rates from taking their toll.
Higher rates have squeezed bank profit margins as the cost of funding has
increased faster than the rate of interest institutions have been able to
charge on outstanding loans. If rates remain around current levels, Moody's estimates
that Russian banks could struggle to cover their costs.
The ratings agency
writes (emphasis added):
With the CBR key rate at
15%, we estimate that Russian banks’ net aggregate interest income from
operations with customers will fall by one third in 2015 to nearly RUB1.5
trillion.
Total
recurring income (including net interest income and fees and commissions) will
barely reach RUB2.3 trillion in 2015, insufficient to cover banks’
administrative expenses and the likely level of credit costs owing to
rising problem loans.
This chimes with analyst
expectations that the bank bailout bill is likely to cost the government
a further $40 billion this year. As part of the government's "anti-crisis
plan" brought in last week the government has put aside 1.55 billion rubles to
support banks, but that figure is likely to prove only a small
percentage of what will be required to keep the banking system afloat.
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